Recent inflation indicators in the United States have shown diverging trends. The market becomes enthusiastic with the CPI, which is decelerating, but loses confidence when the PCE deflator is released, as it has been trending upward (see Charts 1 and 2).   Given that the latter assigns greater weight to the services sector - which is more resilient - and within it, a smaller weight to rent, which has helped pull the CPI downward, we believe the increased caution expressed by members of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Committee is justified.

Na última reunião, o Copom reduziu a taxa Selic em 0,25 ponto percentual, levando os juros para 14,75% ao ano. Pode parecer um movimento pequeno, mas o recado é grande: o ciclo de queda começou.