U.S. attacks on Iran are likely to keep oil prices elevated for some time (see Chart 2). This geopolitical component, together with the likely end of the downward cycle in international agricultural commodity prices, is expected to put upward pressure on inflation. As for iron ore, the start of operations at the Simandou mine—the world’s largest mining project, located in Guinea and led by Chinese state-owned consortia—has the potential to keep prices contained.
