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BRAZIL – Oil Shock May Be Good for Fiscal and External Accounts, But Will Be Terrible for Inflation and Interest Rates

The report analyzes the economic and financial environment for the week of May 18–22, 2026, highlighting the combination of high inflation, geopolitical tensions, and rising political risk in Brazil.

Even if Transitory, Higher Oil Prices Will Translate into Persistently Higher Inflation in the World

The return of oil prices to levels above USD 100 per barrel highlights the scale of the challenge in restoring commodity supply in the short term. Despite the elevated inflationary risk, there is an uneasy sense of calm in markets, particularly in the United States.

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