The return of oil prices to levels above USD 100 per barrel highlights the scale of the challenge in restoring commodity supply in the short term. Despite the elevated inflationary risk, there is an uneasy sense of calm in markets, particularly in the United States.
The government is right to be concerned about the financial situation of Brazilian households, especially given the strong electoral appeal of the issue. The official strategy is to ease the financial burden on lower-income groups through subsidies (the “Unshackling” program). The remaining question is: who will unshackle government’s own debt? The answer: you.