The outlook combines strong structural drivers (AI-led productivity and growth) with negative short-term shocks, especially higher oil prices.
Globally, inflation remains persistent, limiting the scope for interest rate cuts, particularly in the U.S.
Brazil, despite its strengths in commodities and energy, is constrained by inflation and high interest rates.
The political environment is polarized and pessimistic, with rising risks of radicalization.
An unsustainable growth model—based on fiscal expansion and credit—has increased debt, delinquency, and investor caution.
