Pezco's September Economic Scenario: oil above US$ 100 reignites near-term inflation risk and the fiscal picture stays center stage. GDP decelerates, the IPCA offers temporary relief, and debt — above all its cost in Brazil — is a concern.
The output gap has closed and turned marginally negative, earlier than the Central Bank of Brazil expected. The dynamics point to weaker demand — rather than faster productivity — and support a gradual continuation of the easing cycle.
