We outline below the key issues likely to dominate the 2026 electoral cycle and assess how each may shape electoral outcomes.
Charts 1 and 2 already provide a clear signal: crime and corruption have increased in salience over the past four years. Healthcare remains relevant, but less so than during the COVID-19 period, when it likely contributed to the defeat of the incumbent.
Democracy, while not explicitly captured in Ipsos and Datafolha surveys, was a decisive issue in 2022 but is unlikely to carry the same weight in 2026.
The economy does not appear to be a particularly sensitive topic at present, as inflation and unemployment are at relatively comfortable levels. ESG and diversity-related issues also show limited traction among voters.
The inflation backdrop in the United States remains unfavorable. Core GDP deflator inflation had already shown an acceleration in January (from 3.0% to 3.1%). The latest PPI release now indicates that price pressures are not limited to wage-driven services but are also spreading to the goods segment, most likely reflecting the impact of tariffs (Chart 1).
