Current political polarization and pessimism may be linked to the discontent of a significant portion of the population that sees itself as a loser in a game arbitrated by institutions more concerned with self-preservation than with defending fair and impartial rules. The hand of the state comes to be seen as determining the allocation of wealth in favor of specific groups — sometimes perceived as undeserving — without imposing a relevant burden on the most privileged segments of society. Hence the strength of themes such as meritocracy, religion, and entrepreneurship. Polarization and pessimism in an electoral context favor populist approaches such as: the search for culprits, the presentation of simple solutions, attacks on institutions, and emotional appeals focused on fear.
Recent inflation indicators in the United States have shown diverging trends. The market becomes enthusiastic with the CPI, which is decelerating, but loses confidence when the PCE deflator is released, as it has been trending upward (see Charts 1 and 2). Given that the latter assigns greater weight to the services sector - which is more resilient - and within it, a smaller weight to rent, which has helped pull the CPI downward, we believe the increased caution expressed by members of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Committee is justified.
Na última reunião, o Copom reduziu a taxa Selic em 0,25 ponto percentual, levando os juros para 14,75% ao ano. Pode parecer um movimento pequeno, mas o recado é grande: o ciclo de queda começou.
