Don’t listen to the doom and gloom crowd. It is not 2008 all over again.
Admittedly, the data will be mixed and on the lumpy side but there will be no double-dip recession. It’s just not going to happen.
As this becomes more and more apparent, we are going to find out the bears have over-reached.
Today’s payroll figure only adds to my conviction that things are not as bad as they seem if all you do is read ZeroHedge. It’s just not as awful as it has been made out to be.
As one bearish forecaster after another calls for DOW 6000, the Labor Department said this morning that American employers added 103,000 jobs in September, staving off the bleakest of these forecasts.
The Labor Department also said today that the nation added more jobs than first estimated in July and August. August’s figures were revised up to show a gain of 57,000 jobs, up from a previous estimate of zero. Meanwhile, July was revised up to 127,000 jobs, from 85,000.
Taken together, the net gain was 202,000 jobs. And while I recognize those figures are hardly robust, the fact is they are not consistent with a double- dip recession.
The bottom line is that from the data I am watching, 3rd quarter GDP will be better than expected.
Add it all up and it is positive for the bulls. Now is the time to buy stocks not sell them.
By the way, in October 2008 the BLS reported a loss of 240,000 jobs. That gloomy number came after :
- a 159,000 loss in September,
- an 84,000 loss in August,
- a 51,000 loss in July,
- a 62,000 loss in June,
- a 49,000 loss in May,
- a 20,000 loss in April,
- an 80,000 loss in March
- a 63,000 loss in February
- and a 17,000 loss in January
What followed was even worse with a 533,000 loss in November and a 632,000 loss in December.
As for 2009, the entire year was negative.
In fact, the first positive jobs number didn’t come until 26 months later when the economy finally added 162,000 jobs in March 2010.
2008?… It’s not even close.
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